Oil prices head for biggest weekly gain since July

Oil prices edged lower on Friday, but the market was still headed for its biggest weekly advance since mid-July. The move reflected a sharp rise in concern that escalating conflict in the Middle East could interfere with crude shipments.

Brent crude futures fell 0.4% to $95.09 a barrel, while WTI crude slipped 0.6% to $90.72. Even with the late-week dip, Brent was still up more than 8% for the week, underscoring how quickly the risk premium has widened.

Strait of Hormuz back in focus

Traders have been watching the Strait of Hormuz closely after U.S. strikes on Iranian targets earlier this week. The waterway is a key route for oil exports from the Persian Gulf, so any threat to shipping there can ripple through global energy markets. With hostilities between Washington and Tehran intensifying, the market is pricing in the possibility that flows could be disrupted into next year.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said talks with Iran would not resume until attacks on commercial shipping in the strait stop, and he said all options remain available. Iran, meanwhile, said it carried out retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait and the UAE for a second day, while President Donald Trump said the U.S. could strike Iran at any time. Those exchanges have kept supply fears elevated even as prices eased slightly at the end of the week.

Market reaction remains driven by geopolitics

Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref warned of an asymmetric and multi-layered response to any further U.S. attack and said dark months awaited the American economy. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also said toppling Iran’s government was now a central Israeli objective and described it as within reach. The language from multiple sides has reinforced the sense that the conflict is still escalating rather than stabilizing.

The oil market has also been absorbing a broader set of geopolitical headlines, including comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about possible talks in Kyiv with U.S. envoys. But for crude traders, the immediate driver remains the risk that Middle East tensions could tighten supply at a time when the Strait of Hormuz is under close scrutiny.

This article is not investment advice and recommends no asset, level or direction; a single session's move is not evidence of a trend. For background see Markets, Bear Market, BIST 100, and for terms the finance glossary.