Oil Steadies After Three-Day Rally on Strait Fears

Oil prices paused on Thursday after a three-session rally pushed both Brent and West Texas Intermediate to more than one-month highs earlier in the week. The move came after renewed U.S.-Iran military tension revived concern over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global crude flows.

Brent crude futures were up 0.5% at $96.07 a barrel in volatile trade, while WTI futures gained 0.6% to $91.53. The market had already climbed sharply in the previous sessions, with crude at one point advancing as much as 10% as traders reassessed supply risk.

Strait of Hormuz remains the key focus

The latest price action reflects a familiar pattern in the oil market: geopolitical stress can lift prices quickly, but follow-through depends on whether shipments are actually disrupted. In this case, investors were reassured by signs that energy exports were still moving through the narrow waterway.

U.S. officials have pointed to continued robust flows through the route, and CNN reported that the American military escorted 40 vessels through the passage on Tuesday carrying 18 million barrels of oil. That detail helped temper fears that the confrontation would immediately choke off supplies.

Additional support for the supply picture came from shipping data and industry sources showing a notable increase in Iraq’s oil exports in August and September. Strong profit margins and approvals for Iranian tanker passage were cited as factors behind the rise, adding to evidence that physical flows have not yet been materially interrupted.

Market weighs military risk against supply reality

Still, the backdrop remains fragile. Fresh clashes between Washington and Tehran followed weeks of relative calm around the waterway, and the renewed fighting revived worries about the region’s role in global energy transport.

President Donald Trump said further attacks on Iran would be short-lived, while also repeating his claim that the United States controls the route used for a large share of the world’s crude shipments. For traders, the immediate question is not only whether tensions persist, but whether they translate into actual losses of supply.

For now, the market is balancing a higher geopolitical risk premium against continued evidence of oil moving through the Strait. That has kept prices elevated without triggering another break higher, as participants wait for clearer signs on whether the confrontation will remain limited or spread further.

This article is not investment advice and recommends no asset, level or direction; a single session's move is not evidence of a trend. For background see Markets, Bear Market, BIST 100, and for terms the finance glossary.